Brighton v. Southampton Preview
The Albion are flying high, coming off wins against Bournemouth and Manchester City, and a return to Europe looks like it might be in the cards, but could a visit from The Saints bring them back down to earth?
Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics:
Data is from FBRef, unless stated otherwise.
If we dig into the numbers, it’s hard not to feel confident about The Seagulls’ chances. Southampton are fairly good at keeping hold of the ball (their 55.1% average possession this season ranks 5th in the league) but they struggle to do anything meaningful with it. Their 9 goals scored puts them dead last in the Premier League, and their xG of 13.2 isn’t much better, landing them in 15th place overall.
As bad as The Saints’ offensive numbers look, their defending might actually be worse. Their 24 goals conceded is the second highest in the Premier League, and they’ve accumulated the most xGA. A huge part of the problem is Russell Martin’s dogged insistence in playing out from the back, despite his squad’s clear inability to do so. The Saints have made 20 errors leading to a shot against, almost double the next worst team. With The Seagulls playing much more on the front foot under Hürzeler than they ever did under De Zerbi, it’s not hard to imagine Brighton’s press causing problems for Southampton.
The stats all seem to point towards an easy three points for the Albion, so we should all be able to relax on Friday, right? Not so fast! Brighton may have exceeded expectations thus far, but they’ve stumbled against lower opposition. Home draws against Wolves and Ipswich Town have shown that nothing should be taken for granted.
Bird’s Eye View:
While watching Southampton play against Liverpool this past Sunday, I couldn’t help but wonder if I was seeing the blueprint to success against The Seagulls. Southampton’s second goal was an incisive counter attack, exactly the sort of thing that could give Brighton’s high line fits. Will Martin give his players the freedom to try that more often, though?
Speaking of the back line, it’ll be interesting to see if Dunk is restored to the starting lineup. While this wouldn’t have even been a question a year ago, if we’re going purely on merit, it’s hard to build a definitive case for Dunk over Igor:
Ultimately, I think Dunk’s status as captain, and the credit he has in the bank, give him the nod eventually, but I wouldn’t be surprised if his first couple of appearances are off the bench. Make no mistake about it though, Igor has been a more than capable replacement, and he’ll have every right to feel hard done by if more opportunities don’t present themselves over the course of a long season.
There are questions surrounding the midfield too, with Baleba serving his one match ban. Will Mats Wieffer get the opportunity to try and impress? The Dutchman has had a rocky start to life in England, with poor performances and injury troubles limiting his minutes. That said, I thought he played quite well against Bournemouth, despite coming into the game under less than ideal circumstances. With Hinshelwood out as well, this could be the perfect chance for Wieffer to build confidence and get his season back on track.
Flight Pattern:
I don’t see why Hürzeler would stray from a winning formula, so I expect a very similar lineup to the one that’s started recent matches:
Although I’m not betting on either one starting, I do think that O’Riley and Minteh could be key contributors off the bench.
Fearless Prediction:
Are you a true Albion supporter if you don’t have a bit of anxiety that they’ll slip on this banana peel? You are not. It has been decreed. Still, I trust Hürzeler to keep the squad focused on the task at hand, and I just think Brighton’s attack is going to overwhelm Southampton over the course of 90 minutes. I’m going with a 2-0 win for The Seagulls, with goals from Danny Welbeck and João Pedro.